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The Science of Superstitions
The Science of Superstitions
Continue to
Science and Religion
By:
Dr. Sam Vaknin
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"The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious. It is the
fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science."
Albert Einstein, The World as I See It, 1931
The debate between realism and anti-realism is, at
least, a century old. Does Science describe the real world -
or are its theories true only within a certain conceptual
framework? Is science only instrumental or empirically adequate
or is there more to it than that?
The current - mythological - image of scientific enquiry is as
follows:
Without resorting to reality, one can, given infinite time and
resources, produce all conceivable theories. One of these theories is bound to
be the "truth". To decide among them, scientists conduct experiments and compare
their results to predictions yielded by the theories. A theory is falsified when
one or more of its predictions fails. No amount of positive results - i.e.,
outcomes that confirm the theory's predictions - can "prove right" a theory.
Theories can only be proven false by that great arbiter, reality.
Jose Ortega y Gasset said (in
an unrelated exchange) that all ideas stem from pre-rational
beliefs. William James concurred by saying that accepting a truth
often requires an act of will which goes beyond facts and into
the realm of feelings. Maybe so, but there is little doubt
today that beliefs are somehow involved in the formation of many
scientific ideas, if not of the very endeavor of Science. After
all, Science is a human activity and humans always believe that
things exist (=are true) or could be true.
A distinction is traditionally made between
believing in something's existence, truth, value of
appropriateness (this is the way that it ought to be) - and
believing that something. The latter is a propositional attitude:
we think that something, we wish that something, we feel that
something and we believe that something. Believing
in A and believing that A - are different.
It is reasonable to assume that belief is a
limited affair. Few of us would tend to believe in contradictions
and falsehoods. Catholic theologians talk about explicit belief (in
something which is known to the believer to be true) versus
implicit one (in the known consequences of something whose truth
cannot be known). Truly, we believe in the probability of
something (we, thus, express an opinion) - or in its certain
existence (truth).
All humans believe in the existence of
connections or relationships between things. This is not
something which can be proven or proven false (to use Popper's
test). That things consistently follow each other does not prove
they are related in any objective, "real", manner
- except in our minds. This belief in somee order (if we
define order as permanent relations between separate physical or
abstract entities) permeates both Science and Superstition. They
both believe that there must be - and is - a connection
between things out there.
Science limits itself and believes that only certain entities
inter-relate within well defined conceptual frames (called theories). Not
everything has the potential to connect to everything else. Entities are
discriminated, differentiated, classified and assimilated in worldviews in
accordance with the types of connections that they forge with each other.
Moreover, Science believes that it has a set of very effective
tools to diagnose, distinguish, observe and describe these relationships. It
proves its point by issuing highly accurate predictions based on the
relationships discerned through the use of said tools. Science (mostly) claims
that these connections are "true" in the sense that they are certain - not
probable.
The cycle of formulation, prediction and falsification (or
proof) is the core of the human scientific activity. Alleged connections that
cannot be captured in these nets of reasoning are cast out either as
"hypothetical" or as "false". In other words: Science defines "relations between
entities" as "relations between entities which have been established and tested
using the scientific apparatus and arsenal of tools". This, admittedly, is a
very cyclical argument, as close to tautology as it gets.
Superstition is a much simpler matter:
everything is connected to everything in ways unbeknown to us. We
can only witness the results of these subterranean currents and
deduce the existence of such currents from the observable flotsam.
The planets influence our lives, dry coffee sediments contain
information about the future, black cats portend disasters,
certain dates are propitious, certain numbers are to be avoided.
The world is unsafe because it can never be fathomed. But the
fact that we - limited as we are - cannot learn about a
hidden connection - should not imply that it does not exist.
Science believes in two categories of
relationships between entities (physical and abstract alike). The
one is the category of direct links - the other that of
links through a third entity. In the first case, A and B are seen
to be directly related. In the second case, there is no apparent
link between A and B, but a third entity, C could well provide
such a connection (for instance, if A and B are parts of C or are
separately, but concurrently somehow influenced by it).
Each of these two categories is divided to
three subcategories: causal relationships, functional
relationships and correlative relationship.
A and B will be said to be causally related if
A precedes B, B never occurs if A does not precede it and always
occurs after A occurs. To the discerning eye, this would seem to
be a relationship of correlation ("whenever A happens B
happens") and this is true. Causation is subsumed by a the 1.0
correlation relationship category. In other words: it is a
private case of the more general case of correlation.
A and B are functionally related if B can be
predicted by assuming A but we have no way of establishing the
truth value of A. The latter is a postulate or axiom. The time
dependent Schrödinger Equation is a postulate (cannot be derived,
it is only reasonable). Still, it is the dynamic laws underlying
wave mechanics, an integral part of quantum mechanics, the most
accurate scientific theory that we have. An unproved, non-derivable
equation is related functionally to a host of exceedingly precise
statements about the real world (observed experimental results).
A and B are correlated if A explains a
considerable part of the existence or the nature of B. It is then
clear that A and B are related. Evolution has equipped us with
highly developed correlation mechanisms because they are
efficient in insuring survival. To see a tiger and to associate
the awesome sight with a sound is very useful.
Still, we cannot state with any modicum of
certainty that we possess all the conceivable tools for the
detection, description, analysis and utilization of relations
between entities. Put differently: we cannot say that there are
no connections that escape the tight nets that we cast in order
to capture them. We cannot, for instance, say with any degree of
certainty that there are no hyper-structures which would provide
new, surprising insights into the interconnectedness of objects
in the real world or in our mind. We cannot even say that the
epistemological structures with which we were endowed are final
or satisfactory. We do not know enough about knowing.
Consider the cases of Non-Aristotelian logic
formalisms, Non-Euclidean geometries, Newtonian Mechanics and non
classical physical theories (the relativity theories and, more so,
quantum mechanics and its various interpretations). All of them
revealed to us connections which we could not have imagined prior
to their appearance. All of them created new tools for the
capture of interconnectivity and inter-relatedness. All of them
suggested one kind or the other of mental hyper-structures in
which new links between entities (hitherto considered disparate)
could be established.
So far, so good for superstitions. Today's
superstition could well become tomorrow's Science given the
right theoretical developments. The source of the clash lies
elsewhere, in the insistence of superstitions upon a causal
relation.
The general structure of a superstition is: A
is caused by B. The causation propagates through unknown (one or
more) mechanisms. These mechanisms are unidentified (empirically)
or unidentifiable (in principle). For instance, al the mechanisms
of causal propagation which are somehow connected to divine
powers can never, in principle, be understood (because the true
nature of divinity is sealed to human understanding).
Thus,
superstitions incorporate mechanisms of action which are, either,
unknown to Science – or are impossible to know, as far as Science
goes. All the "action-at-a-distance" mechanisms are of
the latter type (unknowable). Parapsychological mechanisms are more of the
first kind (unknown).
The philosophical argument behind superstitions
is pretty straightforward and appealing. Perhaps this is the
source of their appeal. It goes as follows:
There is nothing that can be thought of
that is impossible (in all the Universes);
There is nothing impossible (in all the Universes) that
can be thought of;
Everything that can be thought about
– is, therefore, possible (somewhere in the
Universes);
Everything that is possible exists (somewhere
in the Universes).
If something can be thought of (=is possible)
and is not known (=proven or observed) yet - it is most
probably due to the shortcomings of Science and not because it
does not exist.
Some of these propositions can be
easily attacked. For instance: we can think about contradictions
and falsehoods but (apart from a form of mental representation)
no one will claim that they exist in reality or that they are
possible. These statements, though, apply very well to entities,
the existence of which has yet to be disproved (=not known as
false, or whose truth value is uncertain) and to improbable (though
possible) things. It is in these formal logical niches that
superstition thrives.
Continue to
Science and Religion
Appendix - Interview granted by
Sam Vaknin to Adam
Anderson
1. Do you
believe that superstitions have affected American culture? And if so, how?
A.
In its treatment of nature, Western culture is based on realism and rationalism
and purports to be devoid of superstitions. Granted, many Westerners - perhaps
the majority - are still into esoteric practices, such as Astrology. But the
official culture and its bearers - scientists, for instance - disavow such
throwbacks to a darker past.
Today,
superstitions are less concerned with the physical Universe and more with human
affairs. Political falsities - such as anti-Semitism - supplanted magic and
alchemy. Fantastic beliefs permeate the fields of economics, sociology, and
psychology, for instance. The effects of progressive taxation, the usefulness of
social welfare, the role of the media, the objectivity of science, the mechanism
of democracy, and the function of psychotherapy - are six examples of such
groundless fables.
Indeed, one
oft-neglected aspect of superstitions is their pernicious economic cost.
Irrational action carries a price tag. It is impossible to optimize one's
economic activity by making the right decisions and then acting on them in a
society or culture permeated by the occult. Esotericism skews the proper
allocation of scarce resources.
2. Are
there any superstitions that exist today that you believe could become facts
tomorrow, or that you believe have more fact than fiction hidden in them?
A.
Superstitions stem from one of these four premises:
That there is nothing that can be thought of
that is impossible (in all possible Universes);
That there is nothing impossible (in all possible Universes) that
can be thought of;
That everything that can be thought of
– is, therefore, possible (somewhere in these
Universes);
That everything that is possible exists (somewhere
in these Universes).
As long as our
knowledge is imperfect (asymptotic to the truth), everything is possible. As
Arthur Clark, the British scientist and renowned author of science fiction,
said: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
magic".
Still,
regardless of how "magical" it becomes, positive science is increasingly
challenged by the esoteric. The emergence of pseudo-science is the sad outcome
of the blurring of contemporary distinctions between physics and metaphysics.
Modern science borders on speculation and attempts, to its disadvantage, to
tackle questions that once were the exclusive preserve of religion or
philosophy. The scientific method is ill-built to cope with such quests and is
inferior to the tools developed over centuries by philosophers, theologians, and
mystics.
Moreover,
scientists often confuse language of representation with meaning and knowledge
represented. That a discipline of knowledge uses quantitative methods and the
symbol system of mathematics does not make it a science. The phrase "social
sciences" is an oxymoron - and it misleads the layman into thinking that science
is not that different to literature, religion, astrology, numerology, or other
esoteric "systems".
The emergence of
"relative", New Age, and politically correct philosophies rendered science
merely one option among many. Knowledge, people believe, can be gleaned either
directly (mysticism and spirituality) or indirectly (scientific practice). Both
paths are equivalent and equipotent. Who is to say that science is superior to
other "bodies of wisdom"? Self-interested scientific chauvinism is out -
indiscriminate "pluralism" is in.
3. I have
found one definition of the word "superstition" that states that it is "a belief
or practice resulting from ignorance, fear of the unknown, trust in magic or
chance, or a false conception of causation." What is your opinion about said
definition?
A.
It describes what motivates people to adopt superstitions - ignorance and
fear of the unknown. Superstitions are, indeed, a "false conception of
causation" which inevitably leads to "trust in magic". the only part I disagree
with is the trust in chance. Superstitions are organizing principles. They serve
as alternatives to other worldviews, such as religion or science. Superstitions
seek to replace chance with an "explanation" replete with the power to predict
future events and establish chains of causes and effects.
4. Many
people believe that superstitions were created to simply teach a lesson, like
the old superstition that "the girl that takes the last cookie will be an old
maid" was made to teach little girls manners. Do you think that all
superstitions derive from some lesson trying to be taught that today's society
has simply forgotten or cannot connect to anymore?
A.
Jose Ortega y Gasset said (in an unrelated exchange) that all ideas stem
from pre-rational beliefs. William James concurred by saying that accepting a
truth often requires an act of will which goes beyond facts and into the realm
of feelings. Superstitions permeate our world. Some superstitions are intended
to convey useful lessons, others form a part of the process of socialization,
yet others are abused by various elites to control the masses. But most of them
are there to comfort us by proffering "instant" causal explanations and by
rendering our Universe more meaningful.
5. Do you
believe that superstitions change with the changes in culture?
A. The content of superstitions and
the metaphors we use change from culture to culture - but not the underlying
shock and awe that yielded them in the first place. Man feels dwarfed in a
Cosmos beyond his comprehension. He seeks meaning, direction, safety, and
guidance. Superstitions purport to provide all these the easy way. To be
superstitious one does not to study or to toil. Superstitions are readily
accessible and unequivocal. In troubled times, they are an irresistible
proposition.
Continue to
Science and Religion
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